The previous decade began with global shrimp production having to recover from early mortality syndrome (EMS)'s impact; this one looks set to begin with another recovery, this time from the damage done by COVID-19.
That was the message from Rabobank's Gorjan Nikolik, presenting the survey results from the Global Aquaculture Alliance (GAA)'s shrimp sector respondents at its 2020 Global Outlook on Aquaculture Leadership (GOAL) conference. GOAL is being held online this year, due to the coronavirus pandemic.
The bottom line: 2019 saw global shrimp production lift 1.5% to more or less exactly 4 million metric tons, only to be followed by a 10.5% drop, to just over 3.5m metric tons, by the time 2020 ends, according to GAA's respondents.
Then, 2021 should see a good recovery, of 8.4%, once again nearing 4m.
A dip in production for 2020, of course, comes as little surprise. Key producing nations such as India and Vietnam look set for output to drop in 2020, thanks to a combination of low raw material selling prices discouraging some stockings, and further coronavirus impacts on markets in the EU and US especially.
GAA's survey gathers opinions from many industry players in each producing nation. This year, Nikolik noted, his presentation also incorporates estimates made by Robins McIntosh, senior vice president of Charoen Pokphand Foods, for China and Indonesia -- countries notoriously difficult to get reliable data on. McIntosh previously provided these estimates on Undercurrent News' own shrimp webinar.
Nikolik presented the survey results by region.
In the Americas, the key producer is Ecuador, which has grown production at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of almost 11% for the years leading up to 2018.
2019 then saw a very strong year, and GAA's respondents believe the country will manage to avoid a fall in output in 2020 -- something Undercurrent reported recently as well. The combined survey replies forecast a lift in production of 1.4% for 2020, keeping output above 600,000t, and another 1.9% lift in 2021. 
Mexico, which reached almost 160,000t in 2018, edged closer to that number once more in 2019, according to respondents. A 10% production drop is anticipated for 2020, before only a slight recovery in 2021:
One of the most interesting outcomes of the survey was the result for Brazil. Production there has been declining, by a CAGR of -1.4%, but respondents see a leap of 33% for 2019, to over 80,000t.
They also think Brazilian producers will lift output again in 2020, to roughly 90,000t, and will surpass 100,000t in 2021. "This is really bullish, and people replying to the survey have mentioned better genetics, better feed, even financing, as helping to drive growth," said Nikolik.
The rest of the Americas producers -- Honduras, Peru, Nicaragua, Guatemala, and others -- are all set to remain relatively flat over the 2018-2021 period, contributing to an overall Americas picture that looks like this:
India, famously, has been flying in terms of vannamei output growth since 2012, but that looks to have peaked in 2019, with a 17.6% year-on-year leap.
GAA respondents expect a 26.5% drop for 2020, to below 600,000t, and only a 4.3% lift in 2021. "This is one of the harshest contractions we've seen in the shrimp sector," Nikolik noted.
"It was a strict lockdown, there was a lack of seed, and processors more or less couldn't export for a period of time."
For China, Nikolik has combined data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations with McIntosh's estimates, to propose production has been declining by a CAGR of -4.8% between 2010 and 2018.
Respondents believe 2019 saw a small dip in output to just over 500,000t, and that a more substantial fall is coming in 2020. Still, in 2021, they see production recovering the just about bang on that 500,000t mark.
Vietnam is now the most important vannamei producer in Southeast Asia, Nikolik noted, and status has been reinforced by only a limited impact by COVID-19.
Production of both vannamei and black tiger shrimp in 2019 slipped 11.4% to just under 700,000t, according to GAA respondents. That's expected to ease again in 2020, to under 650,000t, before recovering again in 2021:
Looking at vannamei production only, the supply dip is less substantial, and has more-or-less recovered by 2021:
On Indonesia, Nikolik has taken estimates by McIntosh and added the GAA survey's data, which proposes quite a strong growth in output for 2019, by 13.8% to nearly 400,000t.
2020 should see a drop of 7.8%, before 2021 recovers almost exactly to 2019 levels.
Thailand's recovery from EMS -- which has been slowly happening since output hit a low of under 300,000t in 2014 -- looks set to cease in 2019, with a 12.6% fall in output. Combined with the trials of 2020, production that year and in 2021 will fall back below 300,000t again, GAA's surveyed players believe.
With the Philippines, Malaysia, and others brought into the mix, that gives the following picture for all of Southeast Asia:
Finally, production in Saudi Arabia and Iran seemingly surged, then peaked, in 2018, with commentators anticipating a drop in both nations for 2019; a decline for 2020; then some recovery for 2021:
October 06, 2020 at 10:39PM
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GOAL outlook: 2021 to be next 'recovery year' for global shrimp output - Undercurrent News
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